| Abstract [eng] |
The paper examines the evolution of the rural settlement system in Lithuania during the 21st century, with a particular focus on the changes that occurred from 2011 to 2021. This study is based on data obtained from population censuses conducted in 2001, 2011, and 2021, provided by the State Data Agency, as well as data from the State Enterprise Centre of Registers. The research has revealed that the ongoing process of rural settlement transformation and territorial polarization in Lithuania, which began in the late 20th century, persists. In many cases, the directions and trends in population changes closely resemble those observed in the previous decade. These recurrent patterns are evident both in the general demographic trends and in regional development. The results of this study showed that the population declined in 70.7 percent of all rural settlements during the years 2011–2021. In 21.7 percent of these settlements, the population increased, while in 7.5 percent, it remained stable. When compared to the previous decade, there was a slight reduction (3.2 percentage points) in the number of settlements experiencing population decline, and accordingly, the proportion of settlements with a growing population increased. In total, over the period of 2001–2021, the population decreased in 82.5 percent of rural settlements, increased in 13.9 percent, and remained stable in 3.5 percent of all rural settlements. The observed trends indicate that the changes in specific groups of settlements during both 2001–2011 and 2011–2021 exhibited remarkable similarities. The population increased in the category of the largest rural settlements, while a majority of the smaller settlements experienced population decline, with approximately 80 percent of them affected. Alongside this population decrease, a portion of the smallest settlements faced extinction, with 42.8 percent of them disappearing during the 2001–2021 period. When examining regional trends of change, it becomes evident that approximately one-third of rural settlements experienced growth in the vicinity of metropolitan areas, while less than 10 percent of settlements showed an increase in population in peripheral areas. The study’s findings showed the subtle trends towards the settlement stabilization in peri-urban zones of metropolitan cities, as well as in sparsely populated peripheral areas, characterised by an abundance of recreational resources and convenient geographic proximity to Vilnius and Kaunas cities (specifically in Utena and Alytus counties). According to the authors, rural settlements in these peripheral areas with recreational potential are likely to remain attractive for second homes in the near future. Recent crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia’s war against Ukraine, have further increased the attractiveness of rural areas as permanent residences or secure backup locations in case of emergencies. While suburban growth near metropolitan areas has slowed down slightly in recent decades, we can predict that the population and settlements near the cities will continue to grow. This process can be disrupted only by a significant economic crisis or other unforeseen major events. There are currently no evident demographic or economic conditions supporting the growth of rural settlements in agrarian areas in the periphery. At the same time, there are a lot of demographic factors suggesting that most rural settlements will likely shrink, and many may even disappear in the future. Based on the patterns observed to date, in the coming decade, it is anticipated that several hundred of the smallest rural settlements will no longer be inhabited. This project (“Peripheral regions in Lithuania: migration and local communities “) has received funding from the Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT), agreement No [S-MIP-21-57]. |
