| Abstract [eng] |
“Expectations” in economics refers to the forecasts or views that decision makers hold about future prices, sales, incomes, taxes, or other key variables. The importance of expectations is due to their often substantial impact on the current choices of firms and households, and hence on the overall level of economic activity. There are three different models of expectations formation: naive or static expectations, adaptive expectations and rational expectations. Naive or static and adaptive expectations mean that the individual uses past values of relevant variables or simple extrapolations of the past values as measures of the expected variables. Rational expectations assume that people behave in their own best interests when they make decisions. This means that people do not repeat their mistakes. Many researchers have focused on the expectations formation in agricultural markets (Fisher and Temin, 1970; Hayami and Ruttan, 1971; Cooley and Prescott, 1973; DeCanio, 1973; Chavas and Johnson, 1981; Bhati, 1987; Bakucs and Markus, 2010; Rezitis and Stavropoulos, 2009a, 2009b, 2010, 2011, 2012; Sckokai and Moro, 2009; Piot-Lepetit, 2011). The evaluation of influence of expectations on raw milk market can be found in LaFrance and de Gorter (1985), Chavas and Klemme (1986), Thraen and Hammond (1987), Chavas et al. (1990), Weersink and Tauer (1990), Adelaja (1991), Roemen (1993), Komaki and Penzer (2005), Bozic et al. (2012), Revoredo-Giha et al. (2013), however, there is no such research in Lithuania. The aim of this paper is to evaluate influence of milk producers and processors expectations on raw milk market. The following goals are raised: 1) to highlight the theoretical aspects of influence of expectations on agricultural sector, 2) to create model for raw milk market, 3) to assess influence of expectations on the purchase and purchase price of raw milk. The data used in this study are monthly time series for the period of January 2011 to June 2014. The data are obtained from the State enterprise Agricultural Information and Rural Business Centre (AIRBC). |
